Friday, December 09, 2016

Vardah - next 48hrs -- SST = ok, shear = ok, Dry air = NOT OK !!

4:30pm, Cyclone #vardah - No great intensification observed, less convective activity, but drifted West ! ... 

#Vardah - ADT analysis suggest pressure around 995mb.
It'll intensify during next 36hrs ! but DRY air has slowly started to wrap thru SW.. 
#Vardah - The dry air may wrap around the system more quickly after next 36hrs and during its intensification process !
#Vardah and dry air !!
GFS - expects there'll be dry wrapping in next 48hrs at mid-levels than in lower levels .. 
After 36/48hrs, Due to DRY air, #vardah can have a drastic "moisture cut" >> meaning, it'll weaken !!!

Shear and Sea surface temperature is almost OK for #vardah 's further WNW track during next 36hrs ... 

December 09, 2016 at 12:01PM

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December 09, 2016 at 11:52AM

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Vardah - moving WNW

Cyclone #Vardah has turned West towards SE-coast of India .. ADT suggests pressure aroound 995mb! .. 

Latest satellite visible show that most of convective activity is over N,NW,W quadrants of #vardah. Partly exposed LLCC can also be seen ... 

JTWC continues to forecast a central-coast Andhra as a Cyclone on 12-Dec ... 
This is what GFS and GEM model suggest about the track of #Vardah .. 

Cyclone #Vardah is expected to be steered WNW by a ridge situated NE of the system 

Wind shear is expected to be neutral all along its forecast track, so it'll intensify further during next 48hrs ... 

@harinipaddy @AfsarOfficial @Karthikganesh29   >> As per latest GFS model, JTWC .. #vardah is not expected to make landfall near #Chennai  
@harinipaddy @AfsarOfficial @Karthikganesh29 >> We shall wait for latest ECMWF and HWRF model run in next 1 hr !